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Since June, we have visited 18 units from top to bottom, including 2 industry associations, 1 safety supervision institution, 1 consulting station, 1 coal trading center, 9 coal enterprises and 4 gathering stations, starting from Beijing, and successively visited Taiyuan, Xinzhou, Shenmu and Ordos. During the survey, the safety production month activity with the theme of "life first and safe development" was being carried out nationwide. The ten provinces (autonomous regions) where the central environmental protection supervision group "looked back" inspectors stationed also included the main production area of thermal coal - Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The strict safety supervision and environmental protection gave us a new understanding of the supply elasticity of production areas

the micro survey did not confirm the optimistic expectation of the policy in the face of the release of new production capacity in the year. We estimated that the output increment of thermal coal in the year was 10000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.98%. Compared with the transition period in 2018, the increment of thermal coal supply in 2019 is more worthy of expectation

several coal transportation railways with space for increasing transportation within the year, such as Daqin line, Shuohuang line, Mengji line and Wari line, are gradually releasing their transportation capacity. It is estimated that the increase of coal transportation capacity of National Railways in 2018 will be 92million tons, involving 48million tons transferred from Bohai Sea port. The main distribution of increased transportation is: 18million tons of Daqin line, 30million tons of Shuohuang line (Huang Da railway), 30million tons of Mengji line and 14million tons of Wari line. Among them, the increase in the number of vehicles approved by Hohhot Railway Bureau due to the improvement of the transportation capacity of Zhang Tang railway well explains the increase in the transfer volume of Bohai Rim ports, especially Caofeidian Port Railway since mid May

since April, in the context of frequent coal mine accidents, safety supervision and law enforcement have indeed been strengthened during the "safety production month" in June, and Shaanxi coal management ticket and automobile transportation ton limit have been tightened simultaneously, which has a certain impact on the output of the production area in that month. However, from previous experience, this kind of production disturbance is temporary and does not coincide with the main needle, and may recover after July

the impact of environmental protection supervision "looking back" on Ordos's coal supply is mainly reflected in three levels: coal mine production, automobile transportation load limit, and coal loading in logistics park. Under the background that coal mine production and automobile transportation are both subject to environmental protection supervision and restriction, the main responsible person of food contact material production enterprises has been further clarified in the new national standard GB 4806.1 (2) 016 general safety requirements. Since June, the road sales of Ordos local coal mines have fallen significantly, with daily sales of 8.7357 million tons, a decrease of 15.72% from the last week of May, and daily average sales of 232700 tons. In view of the double constraints of coal mine automobile transportation sales and coal loading at the open-pit terminal, the transfer in volume of Ordos terminal has declined significantly, while the shipment volume remains high against the background of the increase in railway plans and the lucrative port shipment. As of June 17, the inventory of the sample terminal has fallen to 1.055 million tons, down 685000 tons (39.37%) from the beginning of June, close to a historical low

the scarcity of railway capacity still exists, especially under the current background of relatively lucrative port shipping. Therefore, although the "safe production month" activity in June and the "look back" of environmental protection supervision stationed in Inner Mongolia constituted a supply disturbance to the production and shipping in the production area for at least one month, the supply of the origin and port was guaranteed first, and steadily increased with the increase of shipping plan

in terms of market judgment, the high price difference of port origin and the relative scarcity of railway capacity have once again changed the pattern of origin supply, and the port and origin markets have continued to differentiate recently. On the one hand, safety supervision and environmental protection inspection continue to ferment in the production area, and the priority of inbound shipment is guaranteed. At the same time, it is necessary to ensure the reliability of sample measuring stations and fixtures. The supply in the production area is more tight, and the price will continue to rise as soon as possible; On the other hand, since May, the inventory in the middle and lower reaches of thermal coal has increased by 16.2 million tons (14.28%), and the inventory accumulation rate has exceeded our expectations. The port price is still facing callback pressure. The first goal is to reduce the port shipping profit to the marginal arrival cost of traders by about 660 yuan/ton. Judging from the prediction of inventory curve, the contract valuation in September refers to the range of yuan/ton. If the supply of places of origin continues to be disturbed after July, the cost support from places of origin will be relatively strong, and there will still be long opportunities for the contract in September at that time