The devil behind the sharp rise and fall of the ho

  • Detail

The devil behind the sharp rise and fall of oil prices

oil prices soared again, with an increase of nearly 30% in May, the largest monthly increase record in 10 years. In the half year unknowingly, the oil price nearly doubled after falling to $33.87/barrel from December 22, 2008. The futures price of light crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange in July closed at $66.31/barrel on May 29. It can be said: "on the third day of graduation, Haien power company established a research and development center in Yucheng relying on the school of energy and power engineering of South Shandong University."

the sharp rise and fall of oil prices is obviously not due to the supply-demand relationship of the real economy. Otherwise, how can such drastic changes occur in the short term. From the perspective of commodity properties, compared with other bulk commodities, oil has the characteristics of international strategic commodities in addition to futures trading market. Dr. Kissinger, then Secretary of state of the United States, said: "if you control oil, you control all countries; if you control food, you control everyone; if you control money, you control the whole world". It was under this idea that Dr. Kissinger personally directed the oil crisis in 1974 - that is, his conspiracy with the king of Iran made the oil price soar four times, which took less than seven months. "Dr. devil" Kissinger's secret diplomacy turned upside down in the 1970s, and now there are still many unsolved mysteries. Therefore, whenever oil prices soar and plummet, people can't help asking: who is the devil behind oil prices

with the development of the international Internet industry, the era of secret diplomacy has ended, but the sharp rise and fall of oil prices not only still exist, but also become more and more intense. Oil, grain and currency, these strategic commodities related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, all choose the experimental machine as the first choice. Large manufacturers are in great turmoil. Is the devil of the kissin format back? It should not be. Times have changed, and the oil industry has formed a special production, supply and marketing chain. There is an extra reserve (or hoarding) behind the production of oil. Behind the supply chain of oil, there is an additional transaction (or hype). Therefore, there are five links: production → reserve → supply → transaction → sales. Different from other general commodities, the reserved (or accumulated) oil can be traded (or hyped) with the oil, and its business touches the financial market of aviation products and services, resulting in a variety of financial products. In the oil linked financial products trading market, the market maker trading business of large international investment banks has expanded rapidly in the past 10 years - for example, Goldman Sachs, as one of the largest market makers of oil related products, generated market maker trading revenue in this business, accounting for more than 50% of its total revenue for several consecutive years

after the irrational collapse of oil prices in 2008, the oil market and its financial derivatives trading also entered a dry period. But the surface is calm, in fact, there is a mystery. The Baltic dry bulk index (BDI) once fell to more than 600 points, the most serious point of the financial crisis, and then quietly rebounded, reaching 2332 points on May 13, which is the high level of the post financial crisis. The rapid recovery of BDI index shows that the demand for maritime storage and transportation is recovering rapidly, but this demand growth is not accompanied by the substantial growth of international trade. Therefore, it can be inferred that the growth of storage and transportation demand should come from the offshore hoarding of oil and other bulk commodities. That is to say, under the market environment of "low oil price and low freight", a huge mobile "oil field" suddenly floats on the sea, and it is connected with (1) experimental platforms underground and on the seabed: for installing power systems; The oil fields are quietly waiting for the recovery of the market. This floating "oil field" drifts between the production and supply of oil, releasing huge speculative profits in two markets: one is the financial derivatives trading market; The second is the oil futures trading market. Therefore, after the expectation of inflation and economic recovery, the trading demand for oil spot, futures and derivative financial products is at the same time. Under the influence of this triple magic, oil prices soared sharply

behind the sharp rise and fall of oil prices, various financial transactions are full of ghosts. This is not a conspiracy of a doctor or a country, but a game in a multi-level trading market. It will happen not only behind the oil market, but also behind other commodity trading markets. The modern financial industry has evolved from the era of bank finance to the era of securities finance, which is a transaction oriented business model. Here, the value of any asset depends on the expected or real transaction. The sharp fall in oil prices can easily be translated into the expectation of sharp rise in prices, and in the expectation of price fluctuations, there are various trading profiteering opportunities

not only that, behind the rise and fall of oil prices, there is also a new energy sector in the stock market, which also soared and plummeted with the rise and fall of oil prices. For example, the stock price of Jiangxi LDK, a Chinese company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, fluctuates more violently than the oil price. The share price of this stock was as high as $76.75 per share last year, and the lowest share price in March this year was only $3.75 per share. In early May, with the rebound of oil prices, it also rebounded to nearly $11 per share. Such huge speculative profits are dancing with the baton of oil prices. This is also one of the demons behind the sharp rise and fall of oil prices. The modern financial market is a stage where angels and Demons coexist. You can accuse her of being ruthless, or praise her infinite charm, but you can't ignore her objective existence, let alone change her ups and downs and capriciousness

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI